YOU NEED TO KNOW TO READ DATA PROVIDING THE PRESS

18/10/2016 16:29

I read the great headlines which speaks of economic recovery in the housing market.

A few days ago I studied the report of real estate statistics for the second quarter of 2016 the property registration, in my opinion, these are the data most approximate to real reality in terms of price and number of operations, remain convinced that the variations must not exceed 5% margin over the minimum price.

According to the report, there have been buying and selling 107.868, 88,291 of 19,547 existing homes and new homes throughout Spain.

It is significant that in the last quarter, the provinces with the highest number of sales have been Madrid with 15,540, with 12,191 Barcelona and Alicante with 7,901 homes, followed by Malaga and Valencia 6,149 7,289 homes.

The Alicante province has been the third in the total number of sales, although the data expressed in proportion by population (per 1,000 inhabitants) Alicante is in second position 4.26 viv. per 1000 inhabitants, being the first with 4.50 Malaga viv. per 1000 population, ie, the number of purchases of the province between the census population and multiplied by 1000 is divided, which provides a relative data of real estate in that province activity, this means that in Malaga and Alicante exist in the second quarter higher than the rest of Spanish provinces inmobilaria activity.

 However, these results are indicative mere statistical level, you can not be taken literally as the lay press ago, according to these results we would offer headlines such as:

"Alicante is the second of Spain the movement of the housing market" O "Alicante is the third Spanish province in selling homes," trying to Alicante as the whole province but not specify it, and so I know people who only read the headlines and that then with maximum security, they create dogma among his acolytes.

If you have sold the province of Alicante 7,901 homes in the second quarter of 2016, 4.26 dwellings per 1000 inhabitants, in response to this, in a population with 100,000 inhabitants have sold 426 homes and a population 1000 inhabitants only 4, 26 homes, we can continue the calculation to arrive with a population of 250 inhabitants, only 1,075 homes have sold in the province of Alicante, and so we enter into the fallacy.

 These data are only estimates, which do show a trend, and can be considered appropriate for conducting global studies, but not individual, so misinterpretation of data, leads to situations where the only thing try is to move the stagnant economy, being the marketing and advertising that take advantage of misinformation under the guise of increasing sales, and as in the capital market, the rumors are rampant.

Based on the above data remember that the Alicante province have sold 7,901 homes in the second quarter of 2016 and 4.26 dwellings per 1000 inhabitants.

After consulting my databases, I discuss the particular results for a very small local market, Alicante Capital (going to do Madrid but I would take weeks and just trying to give you an example of how misapplied data give rise to misunderstandings)

The total number of homes sold Alicante capital amounts to 385 homes in the second quarter of 2016.

According to the latest municipal census is 2015, the population of Alicante airport was 328,648 inhabitants (latest data available which requires not consider it valid).

According to the report Tinsa, November 2015 in the province of Alicante 26% of homes built in 2008, date of the report, they were unsold.
According to the report IMEI (Spanish real estate market index in the third quarter of 2016, published on 09.30.2016), he says that the average price housing completed in the province of Alicante fell by 1.6% (negative) and Alicante airport down 2.5% (negative), implying that the market situation where the headlines are placing second or third Alicante of Spain, are not as real for the purposes of recovery.

Let us focus on the example of Alicante capital in 2014 included 287,628 households surveyed. (Source Cadastre)

Personally analyzed the data in the second quarter of 2016 have sold 385 homes (sales registered in the Land Registry)

This represents only 0.13% of the housing stock capital Alicante.

If taken as true the data of homes sold 4.6 per 1000 inhabitants to the population of 328,648 inhabitants, this would mean that in Alicante should have been sold 1511.78 homes of the 7,901 homes sold across the province, when the reality is that only sold 385 homes in Alicante city, being one thing at the provincial level but locally another,

And yet, my report is based on population data from 2014/2015 therefore lacks the rigor that should be, that if you can Fiaros of the, just an advice, do not stay with the data, never take it for assumed the use of information does not depend on other factors if there is data, we must correctly understand its meaning and the only thing I can say is that in Alicante Capital in the second quarter of 2016 have only sold 385 homes, and not so even that 0.13% is real, only approximate.